It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
