A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
